Ooops they did it again!!!
They Blew It Again!
That was the glaring message in today’s Miami Herald about this year’s hurricane predictions. Even the former director of the Hurricane Center Max Mayfield says hurricane forecasters have some ‘splaining to do after so many “off” predictions for the last few storm season in the Atlantic.
Colorado State University’s team including Dr. William Gray (one of the most prominent Hurricane Forecasters) came out with their annual estimates before the season began which was: above average season with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes – 5 of which would become intense (Cat 3 or higher)NOAA’s team of experts decided on 13 to 17 would-be-named storms, 7 to 10 of them strengthening into hurricanes and 3-5 becoming intense. this year
So as we wrap up hurricane season (November 30th) what’s this year’s grand total? (Drum roll please….)14 named storms…5 hurricanes and 2 of them intense. Pretty darn average – according to statistics. Two years ago (the historic year of Katrina – 2005) the predictions were WAY WAY too low. Last year the predictions were, like this year: way over, bro! So are those “bad” forecasters burying their heads in the sand or what? Here’s the article – it’s an interesting one, and I’d love to hear your thoughts…
I’ll stick to my mantra, and that is this: anything outside of a 5 day forecast is pretty much impossible to predict. And that, my friends includes those dire Global Warming predictions. (Not that we shouldn’t care, or forget to do our best to conserve energy – and protect our wonderful planet) but why on earth are we surprised that these forecasts are not exact? Why do we make such a big deal of the hurricane forecasts when they come out? It’s mind boggling. However, I will say this – I don’t care how “wrong” a season is, everyone who has lives in a hurricane prone area (from the Gulf Coast up and up the Atlantic Seaboard) needs to prepare every single season no matter what the forecasters say. Like Max Mayfield always says – it just takes one of these storms in your backyard to make it a terrible year.
JD
Janice, you are totaly right about predictions. Even with all the high tech gear, satellites, computer models, etc., any thing past 5 days is a W.A.G. (Wild A** Guess). I also agree we should do all we can to conserve and protect our planet. But it’s pretty arrogent AND stupid to think that we humans can do anything to completely cause OR prevent global warming. As many times over the centuries, if the Earth decides to change, all we living beings, from tiny microbes to Humanity, can do is go along for the ride.
I love W.A.G! I might have to get a t-shirt that says that Thomas! Good comments as always.
jd
I agree with the five day thing, JD. Anything longer never seems to pan out around here. I have tried to plan activities around a 20 day forecast to only realize that weather is not a long term deal.
Five day forecast?!?! LOL … C’mon, in Seattle, they’re lucky if they can get tomorrow’s forecast correct … LOL … I know, I know … 50% chance it’ll rain … LOL …
NWS issued a “wind advisory” for yesterday … But, the wind didn’t make it through Customs … and the advisory was cancelled … LOL
First snow in the Puget Sound Convergence Zone hit yesterday at dinnertime … Big, heavy & wet flakes … Twas on the “hilltops” …
Snow in the WA passes … http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/traffic/passes/camera.aspx
And at 7:19am pacific … The Boeing Dreamlifter just skipped town from Paine Field …
Good stuff Tiamat!
Yup – 50/50 or a coin toss would be a better forecast sometimes right!
jd
Good morning Janice…..thanks for the heads up on the Santa Anas ! We are growing all to use to the wind drivens fires here lately to the point I try to schedule myself to not go out in the field when the winds are bad ~ crazy huh?
Yes, Natalie. I’m going to write something up right now on the blog about those dreadful Santa Anas!
Hey Janice,
We have talked about this before and you should know where I stand. I think the forecast was pretty spot-on. I think you know that we in this field usually go for the worse case more times than not. I would much rather bust a forecast that I said that it was going to snow than forecast no snow and then it snows. I think that goes along with the hurricane forecast too. Before Katrina not many people cared about the hurricane forecast outside of the Gulf Coast, so now when the NHC puts it out its more of a PR thing than a scientific forecast. They know that the average is 15 named storms, or whatever, so they forecast 17 instead of 13 and get a lot of press about an ‘above average’ forecast. So think about the headlines if they forecasted 13 and 15 developed. Its called CYA, Cover your A$$.
Anyway, I looked up the ram we saw over the weekend and I was a bighorn sheep. That was the first one I had seen that wasn’t stuffed.
40 degrees here with our downslope winds picking up. We have warmed 20 degrees since 4 this morning.
Have a great day,
Those of us who live in Mississippi usually laugh when the hurricane predictions come out each year. We’ve been through enough of them to know just how unpredictable they are. I am old enough to remember Camille, which is kind the mother of all storms for Mississippi. It was technically stronger than Katrina, but not as big area wise. Camille hit hard, but blew out quickly. Very little damage to our county 3 hours inland. Katrina, on the other hand, was still had Cat 3 winds when she came through our area. Only 1 loss of life in our county, but enormous damage. Others have been rough to live through (Ivan, Dennis, Frederick, George), but nothing like Katrina.
By the way, one of my sons utilizes in the E-WAG factor. This is an “educated wild a** guess”. He’s in the military, so I thought maybe that was one of those military acronyms. Don’t know for sure; but it does seem to fit in with weather prediction.
I love this WAG, E-WAG factor Gwen! so great. I wish I could say it on television! hee hee. Thank you for your insight from Mississippi too. You certainly know what you’re talking about!
Hey, Janice:
Well, I rely on Janice (OF COURSE!) and my weather pine cone.
Sal
Once you live through hurricanes like we HAD 2-3 years ago Charlie, Franise, Jean you HAVE PTHS (Post Tramatic Hurricane Syndone) and it’s real
I’ve got it still and it’s really an aweful way to live
Five day out predictions! Janice I love you, Global Warming advocates want us to believe they can tell what the weather / climate will be in 50 years. This stand will upset Dr. Cullin from the Weather Channel who wants those on air meterologists that do not support the theroy of Global Warming to be banned from on air presentations, Jancie keep up the good work!