More on the busted ‘cast…
Richard Huff
Countless kids were likely angry at the area’s weathercasters Monday after going to bed Sunday night banking on a snow day, only to wake up to rain.
They had area weathercasters, including the National Weather Service, to blame for the mixup.
That’s because after a weekend of dire predictions of a snowstorm hitting the region, the major storm predicted went bust, leaving many to ask, what the heck happened?
“I feel like I let the public down,” WABC/Ch. 7 senior meteorologist Bill Evans said yesterday. “We didn’t get it right. At the same time, we worked as hard as we could to get it right.”
All Sunday, the pending storm was pitched on newscasts and radio, with predictions of at least 3 to 6 inches in the city. The National Weather Service predicted even more in northern suburbs.
The difficulty, says Evans, was that a variety of elements were expected to come together Sunday night, but didn’t.
The bad forecast exposed a larger debate between weathercasters over when to go with their gut or rely on the NWS.
The weather service had a computer model calling for snow, but it depended on many factors, including a burst of cold air from above, to occur at the same time.
That didn’t happen.
The signs that something wasn’t right started early. WCBS- AM meteorologist Craig Allen, who worked at WWOR/Ch. 9 Sunday, posted a note at the blog Tristateweather Sunday afternoon saying he didn’t see the storm coming together, and his prediction conflicted with the NWS forecast. “I used phrases like, ‘I don’t agree with the high totals you’re hearing,’” Allen said of his Sunday forecasts.
“Unfortunately ‘Heavy Snow Warning’ on a colorful map will always trump ‘I don’t think it will be that bad,’” he said.
By Sunday night at 11, the weathercasters were struggling with their own forecasts and what was coming from the NWS. However, at that point the newscasts had committed to heavy storm mode, with multiple weather staffers on hand and reporters all over the region.
Yet the snow was not there.
Lee Goldberg noted on Ch. 7 that it was snowing at high altitudes but warm air prevented it from hitting the ground.
The National Weather Service still had a heavy snow warning in effect for much of the area.
“We just do not think it’s going to be as severe as the thinking the National Weather Service is holding onto,” WCBS/Ch. 2’s Lonnie Quinn said early in Sunday’s 11 p.m. newscast.
He wasn’t alone.
While weathercasters are more right than wrong, viewers remember the bad storms that are predicted and don’t happen.
Yesterday on Ch. 7’s noon newscast, anchor Ken Rosato joked with Evans that they’d gotten 10,000 e-mails from angry kids. Though he was joking, loads of viewers felt hosed by the faulty forecast.
“We were going over this and over this,” Evans said of the discussions that occurred on Sunday. “It wasn’t like we stuck our finger in the air. We’re meteorologists. It really makes you frustrated and upset we couldn’t get it better than we got it.”
(SIGH….)
JD
LOL…cute!!
Janice having grown up in CT I so remember those days of going to sleep…thinking that we would have a snow day cause of what the ‘casters said …only to wake up to find out that..TADA…School was in session…
My mother was pretty cool about it sometimes though…Sometimes if we didnt have any tests or reports to get in etc etc…sometimes she would allow us to take a hooky day!!…(I have a cool mom!!)
But often times we just knew…My father worked for our town’s highway dept so if he was called in to plow…well we pretty much knew school would be called…
Boy..now that is a trip down memory lane….
Good evening Janice/aka Easy Chef…
You can’t get it right all the time…kids not to worry …I predict there are snow days ahead..
Lonnie Quinn looks like Sam Champion…
well back to my simple life..deb in tn…
Hey Deb!
Yes, Lonnie looks alot like Sam…I think that was the idea when they hired him. A Sam-clone! Its scary if you ask me!!
Janice,
I have felt that gut feeling before….do I go with that or what the models are telling me. The public remembers the big ones we bust but what about a pat on the back when we get it right. And no we are not wrong 90% of the time. If we were none of us would have jobs. Normal Joe’s do not understand it that weather is always changing…a forecast for snow tomorrow can change overnight if one thing doesn’t happen. The atmosphere is a fluid and is always changing there is now way we can be right 100% of the time. But when a forecaster tries to explain why something didn’t happen the Joe Shmoe’s eyes start to glaze over because they don’t want to hear it because they don’t comprehend our explanations….they only understand that you got it wrong. For local news forecasters that are not meteorologist have to go off of what the NWS says. So they get skrewed if the NWS is wrong.
Its better say that it is going to snow and it doesn’t, rather than say its not going to snow and it does.
I love my job!!! Not everyone can see the atmosphere like we do.
Absolutely right on David! And the NWS really got it wrong this time…didn’t even update their forecast til the morning! Wacky. Thank goodness I do national weather is all I have to say!
Hey, Janice:
I think that most folks do not realize that weather is a constantly happening series of atmospheric events, it is not just “one thing” that happens to create the weather. It is a mixture of pressure, heat, and moisture…is it not? And the activity of weather occures up to three miles, if I remember my readings correctly.
I remember that Dr. Frank Fields (father of Storm Fields) said that once an angry viewer came into the studio years ago and actually punched him because of forecasts that did not take place!
Sal
Ohmygosh! Punched Frank Fields? That’s awful! I remember that Nicholas Cage movie when he played a weather man and people would throw food/drinks at him. I thought that was a little extreme, but maybe not? eek.
well Janice- to err is human– when in doubt, just walk outside—
or do a snow dance if you want snow….. Was this to miss school? Don’t they have parents who walked five miles to school in the snow? I sure heard this when I was a kid
I hope your tummy was full with one of those recipes when you posted this-
Hey Susan! Just finished the leftover Shepherd’s Pie!
There was a study done some years back where they compared the WX forecasts given by the media forecasters to what actually happened on the day of the forecast. The study, which I believe was done over a several year period, showed that the media weather forecasters were right 78% of the time…………or roughly 285 days out of the year.
Wow John, that’s very optimistic. It’s the big storms that seem to stick in everyones mind though…:(
You know, people talk a lot about how meteorologists are the only employees that can be wrong everyday and still keep their jobs. How true!
Seriously, I’d say that weather is a lot like medicine…trial/error and trend based.
Have a greay day everyone!
JC
JD, Awesome !! I was excited to see the food talk from yesterday on the Machine. Nothing brings a family closer than working together in the kitchen and setting down over a healthy meal.
It’s a nightly ritual around our house to make dinner together, set down and play Hi-Low (going around the table, we share our Hi and Low experiences of the day) Here’s a recent post on my blog for a quick leftover chicken breakfast. Very Paleo friendly. Check out the Tool Shed http://gsbtoolshed.blogspot.com for other recipes.
“Breakfast Bird”
1 Cup sliced cooked chicken
1 Cup broccoli
1/2 Cup sliced mushrooms
Pinch of Crushed Red Pepper Flakes
Pinch of Big Jim Baldridge Seasoning
3 eggs
Olive Oil
* Saute first 5 ingrediants in olive oil for 2-3 mins. Add eggs and scramble until eggs are just set up. Hit it with a little Tabasco and cheese if you please.
Ryan,
That sounds scrumptious!
Jullie………and just like medicines, it’s better to have a “high” than a “low”.
Hey Janice, my part of Iowa is forecast to get 2 to 4 inches of snow tomorrow. Maybe you could predict snow for us so we won’t get it!
Just teasing. Although this whole season most of the forecasts for snow around here have been off, sometimes by quite a bit.
You do a great job, and I enjoy all the personality you display on screen.
Thanks Scott! Did you get your 2-4?
Hey, Janice:
Yes, I remember him saying this on the air.
I saw the movie Weather Man, too. Nicholas Cage should have shot back at those people throwing food at him with his bow and arrows. Now, THAT would have been ENTERTAINMENT!
Sal
When my wife called to tell me Heath Ledger died, my response was “who’s Keith Ledger?”